By birth setting and birth attendant, in hospital and out of it, against three hospital comparison groups. US term births, 2017–2023.
Every figure below comes from one analysis of 22,708,247 US term live births at 37 weeks or later, linked to 45,110 infant deaths. Choose a comparison group, a birth setting and attendant, and a population, and the tool returns the same nine quantities reported in the source tables. Nothing is modelled or extrapolated inside this page: the numbers are read from precomputed results.
Sources: NCHS period/cohort linked birth–infant death data files, birth cohorts 2017–2023 (primary) · NCHS linked file user guide 2026 · Ely & Driscoll, Natl Vital Stat Rep 2025 · Zou, Am J Epidemiol 2004 · Osterman et al, Natl Vital Stat Rep 2026. Analysis by the authors, not yet peer reviewed.
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Choose the comparison
The referent all other rows are measured against.
Ten community options. CNM denotes certified nurse midwife.
A risk factor is one of: multiple gestation, non-cephalic presentation, previous cesarean delivery, birth weight below 2500 g, or 42 weeks or more.
All birth settings in this population
How to read these columns
Rate per 10,000 (95% CI) is neonatal deaths, days 0 through 27, per 10,000 live births, with an exact Poisson interval. Excess per 10,000 is the rate difference: the row's own rate less the comparison group's rate. Both are per 10,000 live births, the same denominator used everywhere else on this page, so the subtraction can be read directly off the two rates above. A negative value means mortality in the row was lower than in the comparison group. Excess deaths 2017–2023 is that rate difference multiplied by the live births in the row. Equivalently it is the deaths actually observed in the row, less the deaths that would have been expected there at the comparison group's rate, summed over the seven birth cohorts. The percentage beside it is the excess divided by the expected deaths, that is, how far above or below the comparison group's expectation the row sits. It equals the crude relative risk minus one, so a crude RR of 3.59 and a value of +259% above expected are the same statement in two forms. Births per one extra death is the reciprocal of the rate difference. It answers: how many births occur in this setting for each extra neonatal death compared with the comparison group. In the trial literature this quantity is called the number needed to harm (NNH), the counterpart of the number needed to treat. That name is used in the source analysis and is kept here for cross-reference, but it is avoided as the headline label because these are observational data. Women who choose one setting differ systematically from women who choose another, and the difference shown is an association between groups, not a measured causal effect of the setting. Where the row's rate is lower than the comparison group's, the same quantity is labelled births per one fewer death. The panel headed What this means in practice restates the same figures three ways: per 10,000 births, as a percentage for a single pregnancy, and as a national count per year, because the same number reads as negligible or as substantial depending on which of the three you are shown. Crude RR is unadjusted. Adjusted RR is from modified Poisson regression with robust variance, adjusted for maternal age, parity, maternal race and Hispanic origin, maternal education, trimester prenatal care began, completed week of gestation, birth weight, plurality, fetal presentation, previous cesarean delivery and birth cohort year, less any variable that defines the population. A dash (—) means no adjusted model was fitted for that particular contrast, which is not the same as NE. NE means not estimable because fewer than three deaths occurred in that arm. Where that applies, the live births, deaths, rate and confidence interval are still shown, but no rate difference, number needed to harm or relative risk is reported.
What this tool does not show
Birth certificates record where a birth occurred, not where it was planned. A woman who plans a community birth, transfers in labor and delivers in hospital is counted in the hospital arm together with her outcome, which makes every excess shown here conservative.
The attendant item records professional credential, not model of care, and has no separate code for certified midwife; certified midwives are counted with other midwives alongside certified professional midwives and licensed midwives.
The physician-attended hospital group contains, by construction, the complicated deliveries, the antenatal referrals and the intrapartum transfers. Comparisons against it are confounded by indication. Nothing in this tool supports an inference about the performance of physicians or of midwives.
Publications used in this tool
Sources and methods for BirthData.app · Neonatal Mortality by Birthplace.
Every rate, rate difference, number needed to harm and relative risk in this tool is computed from the primary data files, reference ①. The remaining references cover the file documentation, the validation targets and the statistical method.
Publications used in this tool
①
National Center for Health Statistics. Period/cohort linked birth–infant death data files, birth cohorts 2017 through 2023. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. Available from: https://ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/Datasets/DVS/period-cohort-linked/ (accessed 21 August 2026).
Primary source
Every live birth, death, rate and relative risk in this tool is computed directly from these files. No figure is taken from a secondary report.
②
National Center for Health Statistics. User guide to the 2024 period/2023 cohort linked birth/infant death public use file. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics; 2026.
File documentation
Record layout, field positions and variable definitions used to read the public-use files.
③
Ely DM, Driscoll AK. Infant mortality in the United States, 2023: data from the period linked birth/infant death file. Natl Vital Stat Rep. 2025;74(7):1-19.
Validation
Published national totals against which the rebuilt cohorts were checked; all seven years reproduced exactly.
④
Zou G. A modified Poisson regression approach to prospective studies with binary data. Am J Epidemiol. 2004;159(7):702-6.
Method
Modified Poisson regression with robust variance, the method behind every adjusted relative risk shown.
⑤
Osterman MJK, Hamilton BE, Martin JA, Driscoll AK, Valenzuela CP. Births: final data for 2024. Natl Vital Stat Rep. 2026;75(2):1-48.
Context
National context for the growth of community birth over the study period.
Data provenance
The figures in this tool were computed from the NCHS period/cohort linked birth–infant death public-use files for birth cohorts 2017 through 2023 (reference ①), parsed from the fixed-width record layout published in reference ②. For each cohort year the denominator is every live birth registered in that year and the numerator every death before 365 days of life among those births, assembled from the birth-year and following-year numerator files. Record weights were not applied, as NCHS directs for cohort files.
Annual resident live births reproduced the published NCHS totals exactly for all seven years, pooled 25,936,466 (reference ③). The analysis population is live births at 37 or more completed weeks in the four settings shown, after exclusion of births with a congenital anomaly recorded on the birth certificate: 22,708,247 births and 45,110 linked infant deaths.
Status. The data files are official and public. The analysis of them presented here is the authors' own, is not yet published, and has not been peer reviewed. Figures may change.